Stocks · September 2026

Which stocks to buy now? Three portfolios, with the risk spelled out.

Three written rules, not hunches, each pick twenty names from the same 145 large U.S. companies after the same screen: profitable, cash-generating, not overloaded with debt. They differ in what they reward. Conservative pays most for calm. Balanced treats quality, price, trend and calm alike. Aggressive chases growth and trend, accepts the swings, and was set a target of 50% a year, which the page tests against the record rather than promises. The crash score today is 47 (guarded).

Prices as of 2026-09-04Notes written 2026-09-06Rules, not advice

Three rules, one universe, one screen · prices as of 2026-09-04
	Conservative20 names	Balanced20 names	Aggressive20 names	S&P 500 fundSPY, for reference
What it rewards	Lose less when it falls	Quality, price, trend and calm in equal measure	Growth and trend first, volatility accepted	the whole index, by size
Betamovement per 1% move in the index, 3 years	0.23	0.28	1.17	1.00
Volatility3 years, annualised	11%	11%	20%	15%
2022 bear marketthe S&P 500's last 20% episode	-7%	+1%	-18%	-24%
2020 crashfive weeks	-33%	-36%	-36%	-34%
Worst 6 monthslast 5 years	-13%	-10%	-22%	-22%
Deepest falllast 5 years, peak to trough	-14%	-13%	-23%	-24%
If the S&P 500 fell 20%beta times 20%	-5%	-6%	-23%	-20%
Forward P/Eprice over next year's expected earnings	16.7x	15.4x	24.2x	n/a
Free-cash-flow yield · dividendstrailing	5.6% · 2.6%	5.7% · 2.6%	2.8% · 0.9%	n/a · 1.0%
Past 3 years, a yearnames chosen today, so hindsight	+18%	+22%	+45%	+21%
12-month outcomesone in twenty worse than · typical · one in twenty better than, last 10 years	-11% · +16% · +40%	-10% · +18% · +45%	-10% · +31% · +77%	-12% · +17% · +46%
12-month windows at or above +50%share of all rolling windows, last 10 years	0%	1%	21%	1%
Full calendar years at or above +50%of 9, 2017 to 2025	0 of 9	0 of 9	1 of 9	0 of 9

Every number is computed from the same ten years of daily prices, dividends reinvested, at today's weights. The two shaded rows exist because the aggressive rule was set a target of 50% a year; they show how often any of these mixes, or the index, actually delivered that.

Conservative

Lose less when it falls · 20 names · beta 0.23 · 75% of the index fund's volatility

Conservative portfolio at a glancevs the S&P 500 index fund (SPY), dividends reinvested

If the S&P 500 fell 20%

-5%

past episodes say -20% to -6%

2022 bear market

-7%

S&P 500 -24%

2020 crash

-33%

S&P 500 -34%

Worst 6 months, last 5 years

-13%

S&P 500 -22%

Volatility, 3 years

11%

S&P 500 15% · beta 0.23

What you pay

16.7x

fwd P/E · FCF yield 5.6% · dividends 2.6%

Where the money sits

Consumer Staples

18%

Industrials

16%

Financials

15%

Health Care

15%

Real Estate

Utilities

Consumer Discretionary

Communication Services

Energy

Information Technology

Materials

The twenty, and what each costs you

Sorted by weight. Score is this rule's composite, 0 to 100. 12-mo trend is the price return over the last year, skipping the most recent month. The two crash columns are each name's total return over the S&P 500's own 2020 and 2022 episodes.

20 holdings · conservative profile · prices as of 2026-09-04
Company	Weight	Fwd P/E	FCF yield	Div. yield	3y vol	Beta	12-mo trend	2022	2020	Score
Coca-Cola KO · Consumer Staples	6.8%	25.4	3.7%	2.4%	17%	0.03	+27%	-5%	-37%	76
Southern Company SO · Utilities	6.3%	18.1	-3.2%	3.4%	18%	0.01	+1%	-7%	-37%	62
Johnson & Johnson JNJ · Health Care	6.2%	21.7	3.3%	1.9%	18%	0.01	+44%	-3%	-25%	75
TJX Companies TJX · Consumer Discretionary	6.1%	25.1	4.0%	1.4%	18%	0.42	+15%	-14%	-42%	64
Waste Management WM · Industrials	5.9%	24.0	4.0%	1.6%	19%	0.12	+2%	-4%	-30%	65
Chubb CB · Financials	5.9%	12.0	11.4%	0.6%	19%	0.14	+26%	-2%	-42%	73
Colgate-Palmolive CL · Consumer Staples	5.7%	22.0	5.4%	2.4%	20%	0.04	+11%	-17%	-20%	77
Union Pacific UNP · Industrials	5.2%	20.4	3.8%	1.9%	21%	0.58	+32%	-21%	-37%	68
Altria MO · Consumer Staples	5.2%	12.0	7.9%	6.2%	22%	-0.05	+2%	-1%	-30%	86
Simon Property Group SPG · Real Estate	4.9%	31.7	4.7%	4.2%	23%	0.77	+22%	-39%	-63%	63
AT&T T · Communication Services	4.9%	10.3	9.8%	4.3%	23%	-0.01	-20%	-18%	-30%	69
Aon AON · Financials	4.8%	15.3	4.7%	0.5%	24%	0.24	-3%	-6%	-39%	69
Progressive PGR · Financials	4.6%	13.7	12.5%	6.3%	24%	0.11	-14%	+19%	-18%	71
Lockheed Martin LMT · Industrials	4.5%	16.2	7.1%	2.6%	25%	0.13	+28%	+14%	-36%	71
AbbVie ABBV · Health Care	4.5%	16.1	4.0%	2.7%	25%	0.27	+14%	+6%	-31%	67
American Tower AMT · Real Estate	4.3%	25.6	4.8%	4.0%	26%	0.06	-12%	-35%	-28%	65
Amgen AMGN · Health Care	4.3%	18.2	4.2%	2.3%	26%	0.51	+45%	+11%	-17%	70
EOG Resources EOG · Energy	4.1%	10.2	8.6%	2.8%	27%	0.37	+12%	+43%	-55%	66
Adobe ADBE · Information Technology	3.1%	10.4	9.1%	0.0%	37%	0.88	-24%	-49%	-20%	55
Newmont NEM · Materials	2.7%	11.9	7.1%	0.8%	42%	0.80	+41%	-29%	-10%	59

Fwd P/E: price over the next twelve months of expected earnings. FCF yield: trailing free cash flow over market value. 3y vol: annualised daily volatility. Beta: movement per 1% move in the S&P 500 fund, three years. n/a means the source does not publish that item for this company.

What you risk, what you pay, and the crash test

Reward on this site means what you pay for a dollar of expected earnings, because a return forecast would be a number typed in. Risk means what actually happened to these names when the market fell.

Downside risk against what you pay

Right is riskier. Up is cheaper against next year's earnings. Hover a point for the name's numbers.

HoldingS&P 500 fund, downside volatility

Crash test

The same mix, held at today's weights through the last two S&P 500 episodes of 20% or more, against the index fund. No rule saw these episodes: the defence score uses a window that opens after 2022. The names were still chosen with today's data.

This portfolioS&P 500 fund

Range of twelve-month outcomes. Resampling three-week blocks of this mix's own history 2000 times, the middle twelve-month result is +16%, with one year in twenty worse than -11% and one in twenty better than +40%. The index fund on the same method: +17% middle, -12% to +46%. That is a range of what has happened over the last 10 years, not a forecast, and those years were kind to U.S. stocks.

What each business is, and what could go wrong

The rule picked the names. The words are ours, written 2026-09-06 from public information, and they will age. The numbers under each card are computed.

KO · Coca-Cola

6.8% of portfolio

Consumer Staples · $382B

Sells concentrate to a worldwide bottling system, so it earns high margins on something people buy every day in nearly every country, and it has raised its dividend every year for more than six decades. Its sales barely move with the economy, which is why the stock trades like a bond with a brand attached.

Risk. You pay a premium for that steadiness, about 25 times next year's earnings, and volume growth is slow. A strong dollar or a lasting shift away from sugary drinks shows up straight in the results.

fwd P/E 25.4 · FCF yield 3.7% · revenue growth 3y +4% · expected EPS growth +5% · net debt/EBITDA 1.5
3y vol 17% · beta 0.03 · 12-mo trend +27% · 2022 -5% · 2020 -37% · score 76

SO · Southern Company

6.3% of portfolio

Utilities · $102B

One of the largest U.S. utilities, serving Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi plus a gas distribution business, with regulated returns and two new nuclear units at Vogtle finally finished and earning. Electricity demand in its territory is growing with data centres and new factories.

Risk. It carries the heavy debt utilities always carry, so higher interest rates hurt twice, on interest costs and on how investors value a slow dividend grower. Regulators can refuse the rate increases its spending plans assume.

fwd P/E 18.1 · FCF yield -3.2% · revenue growth 3y +0% · expected EPS growth +19% · net debt/EBITDA n/a
3y vol 18% · beta 0.01 · 12-mo trend +1% · 2022 -7% · 2020 -37% · score 62

JNJ · Johnson & Johnson

6.2% of portfolio

Health Care · $671B

With consumer health spun off, this is a pharmaceutical and medical-device company with one of the last AAA balance sheets, a pipeline in cancer and immunology that replaces what goes off patent, and a dividend raised for over sixty years.

Risk. Talc litigation has run for years and the final bill is still unknown, and its biggest drug, Stelara, is losing exclusivity to cheaper biosimilars.

fwd P/E 21.7 · FCF yield 3.3% · revenue growth 3y +6% · expected EPS growth +49% · net debt/EBITDA 0.8
3y vol 18% · beta 0.01 · 12-mo trend +44% · 2022 -3% · 2020 -25% · score 75

TJX · TJX Companies

6.1% of portfolio

Consumer Discretionary · $145B

TJ Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods buy excess stock from brands and sell it cheap. That works in good times and better in bad ones, when shoppers trade down and suppliers have more to unload. It has grown stores and same-store sales for decades with almost no debt.

Risk. It is priced as a winner, about 25 times next year's earnings, so a dip in store traffic or margin pressure from wages and freight would hit the share price harder than the business.

fwd P/E 25.1 · FCF yield 4.0% · revenue growth 3y +7% · expected EPS growth -2% · net debt/EBITDA 0.9
3y vol 18% · beta 0.42 · 12-mo trend +15% · 2022 -14% · 2020 -42% · score 64

WM · Waste Management

5.9% of portfolio

Industrials · $89B

The largest waste collector and landfill owner in North America. New landfills are nearly impossible to permit, which gives it pricing power that outpaces inflation, and the business barely notices a recession.

Risk. Priced for that reliability at about 24 times next year's earnings. The Stericycle acquisition adds integration risk and debt, and fuel and labour costs move faster than its contract prices.

fwd P/E 24.0 · FCF yield 4.0% · revenue growth 3y +9% · expected EPS growth +30% · net debt/EBITDA 3.1
3y vol 19% · beta 0.12 · 12-mo trend +2% · 2022 -4% · 2020 -30% · score 65

CB · Chubb

5.9% of portfolio

Financials · $134B

The largest listed property and casualty insurer, with a long record of underwriting for profit rather than chasing premium growth, and an investment portfolio that now earns far more since bond yields rose. About 12 times next year's earnings.

Risk. One bad catastrophe year, hurricanes, wildfires or a major earthquake, can erase the underwriting profit, and softer pricing in commercial insurance would slow earnings growth.

fwd P/E 12.0 · FCF yield 11.4% · revenue growth 3y +12% · expected EPS growth +2% · net debt/EBITDA n/a
3y vol 19% · beta 0.14 · 12-mo trend +26% · 2022 -2% · 2020 -42% · score 73

CL · Colgate-Palmolive

5.7% of portfolio

Consumer Staples · $72B

People buy toothpaste whatever the economy does, and Colgate holds the largest share of it worldwide, plus pet food through Hill's, its fastest-growing business. Margins are high and cash generation is steady.

Risk. Growth is low single digits and the price is not cheap for it, about 22 times next year's earnings. Much of its money is earned in emerging-market currencies, which can swing reported results.

fwd P/E 22.0 · FCF yield 5.4% · revenue growth 3y +4% · expected EPS growth +61% · net debt/EBITDA 1.7
3y vol 20% · beta 0.04 · 12-mo trend +11% · 2022 -17% · 2020 -20% · score 77

UNP · Union Pacific

5.2% of portfolio

Industrials · $172B

One of two railroads covering the western United States, a network nobody can build again, moving grain, chemicals, cars and containers with pricing power that has outrun inflation. It has proposed a merger with Norfolk Southern that would create the first coast-to-coast railroad.

Risk. Volumes track industrial production, so a recession cuts carloads quickly. Revenue has been flat for three years, and the merger could be blocked or come with costly conditions.

fwd P/E 20.4 · FCF yield 3.8% · revenue growth 3y -0% · expected EPS growth +15% · net debt/EBITDA 2.2
3y vol 21% · beta 0.58 · 12-mo trend +32% · 2022 -21% · 2020 -37% · score 68

MO · Altria

5.2% of portfolio

Consumer Staples · $116B

Cigarette volumes fall every year, and Altria still grows earnings by raising prices and buying back shares, then pays most of the cash out as a dividend that yields more than most bonds. At 12 times next year's earnings the market is pricing in the decline.

Risk. The decline can speed up, regulation is a standing threat (menthol bans, nicotine caps), and its attempts to buy growth outside cigarettes have destroyed capital before.

fwd P/E 12.0 · FCF yield 7.9% · revenue growth 3y -1% · expected EPS growth +22% · net debt/EBITDA 1.9
3y vol 22% · beta -0.05 · 12-mo trend +2% · 2022 -1% · 2020 -30% · score 86

SPG · Simon Property Group

4.9% of portfolio

Real Estate · $68B

Owns the best malls and premium outlets in the country. The weak malls have already closed, which has left Simon's occupancy and rents rising while almost nothing new is being built. It pays a large dividend from rent.

Risk. The most cyclical name on the calmer lists: it fell 63% in the 2020 crash and 39% in 2022, because malls depend on consumer spending and on credit markets, and like all REITs it carries substantial debt. Its forward P/E looks high because depreciation depresses REIT earnings; funds from operations is the better measure.

fwd P/E 31.7 · FCF yield 4.7% · revenue growth 3y +6% · expected EPS growth -53% · net debt/EBITDA n/a
3y vol 23% · beta 0.77 · 12-mo trend +22% · 2022 -39% · 2020 -63% · score 63

T · AT&T

4.9% of portfolio

Communication Services · $179B

Having sold its media businesses, it is a phone and fibre company again: adding wireless and fibre customers, paying down debt, and covering its dividend with cash to spare at about 10 times next year's earnings.

Risk. The turnaround has stalled before, price competition from cable and T-Mobile never stops, and the debt pile, though shrinking, is still large. The stock has lagged over the last year, so the market is not yet convinced.

fwd P/E 10.3 · FCF yield 9.8% · revenue growth 3y +1% · expected EPS growth -16% · net debt/EBITDA 2.7
3y vol 23% · beta -0.01 · 12-mo trend -20% · 2022 -18% · 2020 -30% · score 69

AON · Aon

4.8% of portfolio

Financials · $69B

An insurance broker, so it earns fees for placing risk rather than bearing it, and those fees rise with premiums and with the complexity of what clients need covered. It bought NFP to grow with mid-sized businesses and runs at high margins.

Risk. It carries meaningful debt from that deal, and the stock has gone nowhere for three years while rivals rose. It is on these lists for quality and price, not momentum, and the market may keep waiting.

fwd P/E 15.3 · FCF yield 4.7% · revenue growth 3y +11% · expected EPS growth +18% · net debt/EBITDA n/a
3y vol 24% · beta 0.24 · 12-mo trend -3% · 2022 -6% · 2020 -39% · score 69

PGR · Progressive

4.6% of portfolio

Financials · $127B

The most data-driven car insurer in the country, pricing risk with driving data and changing rates faster than rivals, which has let it add policies far faster than the industry while staying profitable. Revenue has compounded at about 20% a year for three years.

Risk. Car insurance is a cycle. When rates catch up with claims costs, competitors cut prices and growth slows, which is what the market has been pricing in: the stock has lagged over the last year.

fwd P/E 13.7 · FCF yield 12.5% · revenue growth 3y +21% · expected EPS growth -18% · net debt/EBITDA n/a
3y vol 24% · beta 0.11 · 12-mo trend -14% · 2022 +19% · 2020 -18% · score 71

LMT · Lockheed Martin

4.5% of portfolio

Industrials · $123B

The largest defence contractor, builder of the F-35, missiles and missile defence, with an order backlog measured in years and customers, governments, that keep paying in recessions. About 16 times next year's earnings, with a dividend.

Risk. Write-downs on fixed-price programmes have hit earnings before and can again. Defence budgets, and who wins the next big contract, are political decisions no model sees coming.

fwd P/E 16.2 · FCF yield 7.1% · revenue growth 3y +4% · expected EPS growth +22% · net debt/EBITDA 1.6
3y vol 25% · beta 0.13 · 12-mo trend +28% · 2022 +14% · 2020 -36% · score 71

ABBV · AbbVie

4.5% of portfolio

Health Care · $460B

Replaced Humira, once the world's best-selling drug, with Skyrizi and Rinvoq faster than most expected, and owns a large aesthetics business built on Botox and a growing neuroscience franchise. Pays a large, rising dividend.

Risk. It carries substantial debt from its acquisitions, drug pricing pressure from governments and insurers is constant, and in pharma the next patent cliff is never far away.

fwd P/E 16.1 · FCF yield 4.0% · revenue growth 3y +2% · expected EPS growth +356% · net debt/EBITDA 3.3
3y vol 25% · beta 0.27 · 12-mo trend +14% · 2022 +6% · 2020 -31% · score 67

AMT · American Tower

4.3% of portfolio

Real Estate · $83B

Owns wireless towers on several continents and rents space on them to carriers under long contracts with built-in increases, a business that grows with mobile data whatever the economy does. Structured as a REIT and pays a growing dividend.

Risk. Heavily leveraged and rate-sensitive: it fell 35% in 2022 when rates rose. Carrier consolidation and its emerging-market exposure have hurt before, and the stock has lagged over the last year.

fwd P/E 25.6 · FCF yield 4.8% · revenue growth 3y +3% · expected EPS growth -5% · net debt/EBITDA n/a
3y vol 26% · beta 0.06 · 12-mo trend -12% · 2022 -35% · 2020 -28% · score 65

AMGN · Amgen

4.3% of portfolio

Health Care · $240B

A large biotech with drugs for cholesterol, bone disease, cancer and inflammation, an obesity drug in late-stage trials, and rare-disease drugs from the Horizon acquisition. It generates large free cash flow and pays a growing dividend.

Risk. Patent expiries hit biotech hard and Amgen has several ahead. The obesity drug could fail or land in a crowded market, and it borrowed heavily to buy Horizon.

fwd P/E 18.2 · FCF yield 4.2% · revenue growth 3y +12% · expected EPS growth +52% · net debt/EBITDA 2.5
3y vol 26% · beta 0.51 · 12-mo trend +45% · 2022 +11% · 2020 -17% · score 70

EOG · EOG Resources

4.1% of portfolio

Energy · $77B

The lowest-cost large shale producer in the United States, run to return cash rather than chase growth, with almost no net debt. It can pay its dividend at oil prices far below today's.

Risk. It is an oil price bet, full stop: it fell 55% in the 2020 crash. Revenue has shrunk for three years as oil came down from its 2022 highs.

fwd P/E 10.2 · FCF yield 8.6% · revenue growth 3y -9% · expected EPS growth +12% · net debt/EBITDA 0.2
3y vol 27% · beta 0.37 · 12-mo trend +12% · 2022 +43% · 2020 -55% · score 66

ADBE · Adobe

3.1% of portfolio

Information Technology · $114B

Owns the standard tools for creative and document work, Photoshop and Acrobat among them, sold as subscriptions with very high margins, and after a year of falling it is the cheapest large software name here at about 10 times next year's earnings. The conservative rule picked it as the technology sector's best on quality and price, not on trend.

Risk. The fall has a reason: investors fear AI image and video generators will erode what it can charge, and its own AI products have yet to prove they add revenue. Its 12-month trend is the weakest on the conservative list.

fwd P/E 10.4 · FCF yield 9.1% · revenue growth 3y +11% · expected EPS growth +57% · net debt/EBITDA 0.2
3y vol 37% · beta 0.88 · 12-mo trend -24% · 2022 -49% · 2020 -20% · score 55

NEM · Newmont

2.7% of portfolio

Materials · $137B

The world's largest gold miner, whose earnings rise with the gold price. It has sold its smaller mines to focus on its best ones and now holds more cash than debt. Gold has tended to hold up when stocks fall, and Newmont lost only 9% in the 2020 crash. The only name all three rules picked.

Risk. A gold price bet with mining risk on top: cost inflation, accidents, and politics in the countries where it digs. It fell 29% in 2022, when real interest rates rose and gold stalled.

fwd P/E 11.9 · FCF yield 7.1% · revenue growth 3y +24% · expected EPS growth +38% · net debt/EBITDA -0.2
3y vol 42% · beta 0.80 · 12-mo trend +41% · 2022 -29% · 2020 -10% · score 59

Balanced

Quality, price, trend and calm in equal measure · 20 names · beta 0.28 · 72% of the index fund's volatility

Balanced portfolio at a glancevs the S&P 500 index fund (SPY), dividends reinvested

If the S&P 500 fell 20%

-6%

past episodes say -21% to +1%

2022 bear market

+1%

S&P 500 -24%

2020 crash

-36%

S&P 500 -34%

Worst 6 months, last 5 years

-10%

S&P 500 -22%

Volatility, 3 years

11%

S&P 500 15% · beta 0.28

What you pay

15.4x

fwd P/E · FCF yield 5.7% · dividends 2.6%

Where the money sits

Consumer Staples

18%

Financials

16%

Health Care

15%

Energy

13%

Industrials

10%

Consumer Discretionary

Utilities

Real Estate

Communication Services

Materials

Information Technology

The twenty, and what each costs you

20 holdings · balanced profile · prices as of 2026-09-04
Company	Weight	Fwd P/E	FCF yield	Div. yield	3y vol	Beta	12-mo trend	2022	2020	Score
Coca-Cola KO · Consumer Staples	7.1%	25.4	3.7%	2.4%	17%	0.03	+27%	-5%	-37%	70
Johnson & Johnson JNJ · Health Care	6.5%	21.7	3.3%	1.9%	18%	0.01	+44%	-3%	-25%	73
TJX Companies TJX · Consumer Discretionary	6.3%	25.1	4.0%	1.4%	18%	0.42	+15%	-14%	-42%	59
Chubb CB · Financials	6.2%	12.0	11.4%	0.6%	19%	0.14	+26%	-2%	-42%	72
Colgate-Palmolive CL · Consumer Staples	6.0%	22.0	5.4%	2.4%	20%	0.04	+11%	-17%	-20%	70
Exelon EXC · Utilities	5.9%	14.6	-4.2%	3.8%	20%	0.01	+5%	-10%	-40%	57
Union Pacific UNP · Industrials	5.5%	20.4	3.8%	1.9%	21%	0.58	+32%	-21%	-37%	67
Altria MO · Consumer Staples	5.4%	12.0	7.9%	6.2%	22%	-0.05	+2%	-1%	-30%	78
Simon Property Group SPG · Real Estate	5.1%	31.7	4.7%	4.2%	23%	0.77	+22%	-39%	-63%	59
AT&T T · Communication Services	5.1%	10.3	9.8%	4.3%	23%	-0.01	-20%	-18%	-30%	60
Exxon Mobil XOM · Energy	5.0%	14.9	4.6%	2.6%	23%	0.21	+38%	+60%	-48%	64
Aon AON · Financials	5.0%	15.3	4.7%	0.5%	24%	0.24	-3%	-6%	-39%	63
Progressive PGR · Financials	4.9%	13.7	12.5%	6.3%	24%	0.11	-14%	+19%	-18%	63
Lockheed Martin LMT · Industrials	4.7%	16.2	7.1%	2.6%	25%	0.13	+28%	+14%	-36%	72
Amgen AMGN · Health Care	4.5%	18.2	4.2%	2.3%	26%	0.51	+45%	+11%	-17%	73
Merck MRK · Health Care	4.5%	15.7	4.3%	2.2%	26%	0.28	+53%	+21%	-18%	66
EOG Resources EOG · Energy	4.3%	10.2	8.6%	2.8%	27%	0.37	+12%	+43%	-55%	66
Marathon Petroleum MPC · Energy	3.6%	11.8	11.8%	1.0%	33%	0.63	+67%	+63%	-71%	71
Newmont NEM · Materials	2.8%	11.9	7.1%	0.8%	42%	0.80	+41%	-29%	-10%	68
Micron Technology MU · Information Technology	1.8%	6.2	2.4%	0.1%	64%	2.34	+610%	-45%	-36%	62

What you risk, what you pay, and the crash test

Reward on this site means what you pay for a dollar of expected earnings, because a return forecast would be a number typed in. Risk means what actually happened to these names when the market fell.

Downside risk against what you pay

Right is riskier. Up is cheaper against next year's earnings. Hover a point for the name's numbers.

HoldingS&P 500 fund, downside volatility

Crash test

This portfolioS&P 500 fund

Range of twelve-month outcomes. Resampling three-week blocks of this mix's own history 2000 times, the middle twelve-month result is +18%, with one year in twenty worse than -10% and one in twenty better than +45%. The index fund on the same method: +17% middle, -12% to +46%. That is a range of what has happened over the last 10 years, not a forecast, and those years were kind to U.S. stocks.

What each business is, and what could go wrong

The rule picked the names. The words are ours, written 2026-09-06 from public information, and they will age. The numbers under each card are computed.

KO · Coca-Cola

7.1% of portfolio

Consumer Staples · $382B

JNJ · Johnson & Johnson

6.5% of portfolio

Health Care · $671B

Risk. Talc litigation has run for years and the final bill is still unknown, and its biggest drug, Stelara, is losing exclusivity to cheaper biosimilars.

TJX · TJX Companies

6.3% of portfolio

Consumer Discretionary · $145B

Risk. It is priced as a winner, about 25 times next year's earnings, so a dip in store traffic or margin pressure from wages and freight would hit the share price harder than the business.

CB · Chubb

6.2% of portfolio

Financials · $134B

Risk. One bad catastrophe year, hurricanes, wildfires or a major earthquake, can erase the underwriting profit, and softer pricing in commercial insurance would slow earnings growth.

CL · Colgate-Palmolive

6.0% of portfolio

Consumer Staples · $72B

EXC · Exelon

5.9% of portfolio

Utilities · $46B

A pure regulated utility since it spun off its power plants, delivering electricity and gas to about ten million customers around Chicago, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington. Regulators set its returns, so earnings grow with what it invests in the grid, and that investment is rising fast with electrification and data-centre demand.

Risk. It spends more than it earns to build that grid and borrows the difference, so it is sensitive to interest rates and to regulators refusing rate increases. Negative free cash flow is normal for a utility, but it means there is no cushion.

fwd P/E 14.6 · FCF yield -4.2% · revenue growth 3y +8% · expected EPS growth +12% · net debt/EBITDA n/a
3y vol 20% · beta 0.01 · 12-mo trend +5% · 2022 -10% · 2020 -40% · score 57

UNP · Union Pacific

5.5% of portfolio

Industrials · $172B

Risk. Volumes track industrial production, so a recession cuts carloads quickly. Revenue has been flat for three years, and the merger could be blocked or come with costly conditions.

MO · Altria

5.4% of portfolio

Consumer Staples · $116B

Risk. The decline can speed up, regulation is a standing threat (menthol bans, nicotine caps), and its attempts to buy growth outside cigarettes have destroyed capital before.

SPG · Simon Property Group

5.1% of portfolio

Real Estate · $68B

T · AT&T

5.1% of portfolio

Communication Services · $179B

XOM · Exxon Mobil

5.0% of portfolio

Energy · $667B

The largest Western oil company, with low-cost barrels in Guyana and the Permian that keep it profitable at oil prices well below today's, very little net debt, and a dividend raised for decades.

Risk. Earnings follow the oil price, which nobody forecasts well, and 2020 showed what happens when demand disappears: the stock fell 48%. How long the world keeps needing more oil is the question the whole sector trades on.

fwd P/E 14.9 · FCF yield 4.6% · revenue growth 3y -7% · expected EPS growth +40% · net debt/EBITDA 0.4
3y vol 23% · beta 0.21 · 12-mo trend +38% · 2022 +60% · 2020 -48% · score 64

AON · Aon

5.0% of portfolio

Financials · $69B

PGR · Progressive

4.9% of portfolio

Financials · $127B

LMT · Lockheed Martin

4.7% of portfolio

Industrials · $123B

Risk. Write-downs on fixed-price programmes have hit earnings before and can again. Defence budgets, and who wins the next big contract, are political decisions no model sees coming.

AMGN · Amgen

4.5% of portfolio

Health Care · $240B

Risk. Patent expiries hit biotech hard and Amgen has several ahead. The obesity drug could fail or land in a crowded market, and it borrowed heavily to buy Horizon.

MRK · Merck

4.5% of portfolio

Health Care · $376B

Keytruda, the world's best-selling cancer drug, carries the company, alongside a vaccine franchise and an animal-health business. Merck has been buying and licensing drugs to fill the gap when Keytruda's patents expire around 2028.

Risk. That expiry is the whole story. Keytruda is roughly half of drug sales, and if the replacements are late, earnings drop sharply. The stock has recovered strongly over the last year, which raises the bar.

fwd P/E 15.7 · FCF yield 4.3% · revenue growth 3y +3% · expected EPS growth +675% · net debt/EBITDA 3.3
3y vol 26% · beta 0.28 · 12-mo trend +53% · 2022 +21% · 2020 -18% · score 66

EOG · EOG Resources

4.3% of portfolio

Energy · $77B

The lowest-cost large shale producer in the United States, run to return cash rather than chase growth, with almost no net debt. It can pay its dividend at oil prices far below today's.

Risk. It is an oil price bet, full stop: it fell 55% in the 2020 crash. Revenue has shrunk for three years as oil came down from its 2022 highs.

MPC · Marathon Petroleum

3.6% of portfolio

Energy · $109B

The largest U.S. refiner by capacity, with a pipeline business (MPLX) that pays it steady distributions, and a habit of buying back a large slice of its own shares every year. At about 12 times next year's earnings it is the cheapest energy name on the balanced list.

Risk. Refining margins swing violently with crude and fuel prices. It is the most volatile of the energy picks and fell 71% in the 2020 crash. It has also had the strongest run of them over the last year, so expectations are higher.

fwd P/E 11.8 · FCF yield 11.8% · revenue growth 3y -9% · expected EPS growth +14% · net debt/EBITDA 1.5
3y vol 33% · beta 0.63 · 12-mo trend +67% · 2022 +63% · 2020 -71% · score 71

NEM · Newmont

2.8% of portfolio

Materials · $137B

Risk. A gold price bet with mining risk on top: cost inflation, accidents, and politics in the countries where it digs. It fell 29% in 2022, when real interest rates rose and gold stalled.

MU · Micron Technology

1.8% of portfolio

Information Technology · $1.08T

One of three companies in the world that make DRAM memory, and a leader in the high-bandwidth memory that AI accelerators need, which has turned a historically brutal commodity business into a boom and multiplied the stock over the last year. The balanced rule picked it for the technology sector on value, quality and momentum; it is the one name on that list outside the defensive theme.

Risk. Memory is the most cyclical business in technology. Prices collapse when supply catches up, and Micron has lost money in past downturns. It is the most volatile stock on the balanced list, about 64% a year with a beta above 2, it fell 45% in 2022, and its weight is held below 2% for exactly that reason.

fwd P/E 6.2 · FCF yield 2.4% · revenue growth 3y +7% · expected EPS growth +250% · net debt/EBITDA -0.3
3y vol 64% · beta 2.34 · 12-mo trend +610% · 2022 -45% · 2020 -36% · score 62

Aggressive

Growth and trend first, volatility accepted · 20 names · beta 1.17 · 134% of the index fund's volatility

Aggressive portfolio at a glancevs the S&P 500 index fund (SPY), dividends reinvested

If the S&P 500 fell 20%

-23%

past episodes say -22% to -14%

2022 bear market

-18%

S&P 500 -24%

2020 crash

-36%

S&P 500 -34%

Worst 6 months, last 5 years

-22%

S&P 500 -22%

Volatility, 3 years

20%

S&P 500 15% · beta 1.17

What you pay

24.2x

fwd P/E · FCF yield 2.8% · dividends 0.9%

Where the money sits

Information Technology

30%

Industrials

25%

Health Care

20%

Materials

10%

Communication Services

Energy

Real Estate

The 50% a year target, against the record

This rule was asked for at least 50% a year. No rule can promise that, so here is what this mix actually did, with the names chosen today, which flatters it. Over the last ten years it cleared +50% in 21% of all 12-month windows (the index fund: 1%), and in 1 of 9 full calendar years. Its typical 12-month result was +27%, its worst -22%, its best +119%. Over the last three years it compounded at +45% a year, which the rule's own momentum screen guarantees looks strong.

2016*+5% 2017+26% 2018-4% 2019+42% 2020+32% 2021+42% 2022-3% 2023+48% 2024+24% 2025+56% 2026*+44%

Calendar-year total returns at today's weights. * partial year. Green cleared the target.

The twenty, and what each costs you

20 holdings · aggressive profile · prices as of 2026-09-04
Company	Weight	Fwd P/E	FCF yield	Div. yield	3y vol	Beta	12-mo trend	2022	2020	Score
Eli Lilly LLY · Health Care	5.0%	24.6	1.3%	0.6%	36%	0.65	+60%	+21%	-15%	89
Palo Alto Networks PANW · Information Technology	5.0%	78.1	1.4%	0.0%	43%	1.24	+87%	-14%	-41%	87
Advanced Micro Devices AMD · Information Technology	5.0%	29.9	1.1%	0.0%	57%	2.26	+202%	-61%	-29%	86
Lam Research LRCX · Information Technology	5.0%	31.6	1.3%	0.3%	51%	2.21	+204%	-55%	-42%	85
Broadcom AVGO · Information Technology	5.0%	19.1	2.3%	0.7%	49%	2.01	+37%	-34%	-38%	85
Arista Networks ANET · Information Technology	5.0%	36.9	2.1%	0.0%	51%	1.87	+36%	-27%	-28%	84
KLA Corporation KLAC · Information Technology	5.0%	31.9	1.7%	0.5%	49%	2.03	+121%	-36%	-32%	82
Newmont NEM · Materials	5.0%	11.9	7.1%	0.8%	42%	0.80	+41%	-29%	-10%	81
Amgen AMGN · Health Care	5.0%	18.2	4.2%	2.3%	26%	0.51	+45%	+11%	-17%	78
Caterpillar CAT · Industrials	5.0%	25.0	2.4%	0.8%	32%	1.29	+104%	-12%	-33%	74
Johnson & Johnson JNJ · Health Care	5.0%	21.7	3.3%	1.9%	18%	0.01	+44%	-3%	-25%	74
Alphabet GOOGL · Communication Services	5.0%	22.8	1.3%	0.3%	30%	1.16	+54%	-33%	-31%	72
GE Aerospace GE · Industrials	5.0%	37.0	2.4%	0.5%	31%	1.16	+33%	-33%	-51%	72
Welltower WELL · Real Estate	5.0%	82.0	1.8%	1.3%	21%	0.31	+41%	-31%	-50%	71
Merck MRK · Health Care	5.0%	15.7	4.3%	2.2%	26%	0.28	+53%	+21%	-18%	69
Eaton ETN · Industrials	5.0%	25.0	2.6%	1.1%	35%	1.50	+29%	-18%	-44%	69
Parker-Hannifin PH · Industrials	5.0%	27.5	3.2%	0.8%	28%	1.23	+41%	-19%	-54%	69
RTX RTX · Industrials	5.0%	26.0	4.0%	1.4%	24%	0.44	+41%	-3%	-50%	66
Schlumberger SLB · Energy	5.0%	17.5	5.3%	2.0%	33%	0.93	+43%	+34%	-63%	66
Freeport-McMoRan FCX · Materials	5.0%	18.1	1.7%	0.8%	44%	1.65	+48%	-30%	-55%	63

What you risk, what you pay, and the crash test

Reward on this site means what you pay for a dollar of expected earnings, because a return forecast would be a number typed in. Risk means what actually happened to these names when the market fell.

Downside risk against what you pay

Right is riskier. Up is cheaper against next year's earnings. Hover a point for the name's numbers.

HoldingS&P 500 fund, downside volatility

Crash test

This portfolioS&P 500 fund

Range of twelve-month outcomes. Resampling three-week blocks of this mix's own history 2000 times, the middle twelve-month result is +31%, with one year in twenty worse than -10% and one in twenty better than +77%. The index fund on the same method: +17% middle, -14% to +49%. That is a range of what has happened over the last 10 years, not a forecast, and those years were kind to U.S. stocks.

What each business is, and what could go wrong

The rule picked the names. The words are ours, written 2026-09-06 from public information, and they will age. The numbers under each card are computed.

LLY · Eli Lilly

5.0% of portfolio

Health Care · $1.03T

The most valuable drug company in the world, on the strength of its obesity and diabetes drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, with demand still outrunning supply and an oral version on the way. Revenue and earnings are growing faster than at any other large pharma company.

Risk. Priced for years of that growth. Competition from Novo Nordisk and a wave of new entrants, pricing pressure from governments and insurers, or a safety issue would hit a stock at this multiple hard.

fwd P/E 24.6 · FCF yield 1.3% · revenue growth 3y +32% · expected EPS growth +58% · net debt/EBITDA 1.1
3y vol 36% · beta 0.65 · 12-mo trend +60% · 2022 +21% · 2020 -15% · score 89

PANW · Palo Alto Networks

5.0% of portfolio

Information Technology · $271B

The largest cybersecurity company, folding firewalls, cloud security and security operations into one platform that customers standardise on. Spending on security rises every year whatever the economy does.

Risk. About 78 times next year's earnings on the source's measure, partly because it pays heavily in stock, so any slowdown in bookings gets punished. It fell 41% in the 2020 crash.

fwd P/E 78.1 · FCF yield 1.4% · revenue growth 3y +19% · expected EPS growth +269% · net debt/EBITDA -0.1
3y vol 43% · beta 1.24 · 12-mo trend +87% · 2022 -14% · 2020 -41% · score 87

AMD · Advanced Micro Devices

5.0% of portfolio

Information Technology · $745B

The credible second supplier of data-centre processors and AI accelerators, taking share from Intel in servers and selling AI chips into a market that cannot get enough of them. The stock has tripled over the last year.

Risk. Nvidia's lead in AI software is the moat AMD has to cross, and the stock trades on that hope: beta above 2, volatility near 60%, and a 62% fall in 2022.

fwd P/E 29.9 · FCF yield 1.1% · revenue growth 3y +14% · expected EPS growth +289% · net debt/EBITDA -0.1
3y vol 57% · beta 2.26 · 12-mo trend +202% · 2022 -61% · 2020 -29% · score 86

LRCX · Lam Research

5.0% of portfolio

Information Technology · $366B

Makes the etch and deposition machines every memory and logic fab needs. The AI build-out and the high-bandwidth memory boom run straight through its order book, and the stock has tripled over the last year.

Risk. Semiconductor equipment is the most cyclical corner of a cyclical industry, with export restrictions to China as a standing political risk. It fell 55% in 2022.

fwd P/E 31.6 · FCF yield 1.3% · revenue growth 3y +10% · expected EPS growth +61% · net debt/EBITDA -0.2
3y vol 51% · beta 2.21 · 12-mo trend +204% · 2022 -55% · 2020 -42% · score 85

AVGO · Broadcom

5.0% of portfolio

Information Technology · $1.70T

Designs custom AI chips for the largest cloud companies and the networking silicon that connects them, and owns VMware, whose software now throws off large recurring cash. About 19 times next year's earnings, the cheapest of the AI names here.

Risk. A handful of cloud customers are a large share of revenue, it carries heavy debt from the VMware deal, and with a beta of 2 it swings with the whole AI trade.

fwd P/E 19.1 · FCF yield 2.3% · revenue growth 3y +24% · expected EPS growth +138% · net debt/EBITDA 0.9
3y vol 49% · beta 2.01 · 12-mo trend +37% · 2022 -34% · 2020 -38% · score 85

ANET · Arista Networks

5.0% of portfolio

Information Technology · $241B

Builds the high-speed switches that connect AI clusters and cloud data centres, with Meta and Microsoft as anchor customers and margins a software company would envy.

Risk. Two customers are a large share of revenue, cloud companies can design their own switches or shift to rivals, and it fell 27% in 2022.

fwd P/E 36.9 · FCF yield 2.1% · revenue growth 3y +27% · expected EPS growth +64% · net debt/EBITDA n/a
3y vol 51% · beta 1.87 · 12-mo trend +36% · 2022 -27% · 2020 -28% · score 84

KLAC · KLA Corporation

5.0% of portfolio

Information Technology · $226B

The leader in the inspection and measurement equipment that lets chipmakers find defects as transistors shrink, with the highest margins in the equipment industry and rising demand from advanced packaging.

Risk. The same cycle as Lam Research: orders can halve when fabs pause, China export rules bite, and it fell 36% in 2022.

fwd P/E 31.9 · FCF yield 1.7% · revenue growth 3y +9% · expected EPS growth +48% · net debt/EBITDA 0.7
3y vol 49% · beta 2.03 · 12-mo trend +121% · 2022 -36% · 2020 -32% · score 82

NEM · Newmont

5.0% of portfolio

Materials · $137B

Risk. A gold price bet with mining risk on top: cost inflation, accidents, and politics in the countries where it digs. It fell 29% in 2022, when real interest rates rose and gold stalled.

AMGN · Amgen

5.0% of portfolio

Health Care · $240B

Risk. Patent expiries hit biotech hard and Amgen has several ahead. The obesity drug could fail or land in a crowded market, and it borrowed heavily to buy Horizon.

CAT · Caterpillar

5.0% of portfolio

Industrials · $368B

The world's largest maker of construction and mining equipment, now with a fast-growing power business selling engines and turbines to data centres. Dividends raised for more than thirty years.

Risk. Deeply cyclical: construction, mining and energy spending all fall in a recession. The stock has doubled over the last year, so expectations are high.

fwd P/E 25.0 · FCF yield 2.4% · revenue growth 3y +4% · expected EPS growth +38% · net debt/EBITDA 2.3
3y vol 32% · beta 1.29 · 12-mo trend +104% · 2022 -12% · 2020 -33% · score 74

JNJ · Johnson & Johnson

5.0% of portfolio

Health Care · $671B

Risk. Talc litigation has run for years and the final bill is still unknown, and its biggest drug, Stelara, is losing exclusivity to cheaper biosimilars.

GOOGL · Alphabet

5.0% of portfolio

Communication Services · $4.17T

Owns search, YouTube, Android and a cloud business growing fast on AI demand, with its own AI models and chips, at about 23 times next year's earnings, cheaper than most of its large-technology peers.

Risk. Antitrust remedies in the United States and Europe could reshape how it distributes search, AI answers could shrink the search advertising that funds everything, and its spending on data centres is enormous.

fwd P/E 22.8 · FCF yield 1.3% · revenue growth 3y +13% · expected EPS growth -25% · net debt/EBITDA 0.2
3y vol 30% · beta 1.16 · 12-mo trend +54% · 2022 -33% · 2020 -31% · score 72

GE · GE Aerospace

5.0% of portfolio

Industrials · $346B

After splitting off healthcare and power, it is a pure jet-engine company, with engines on most narrow-body aircraft and decades of high-margin service revenue locked in as those engines fly.

Risk. Priced for that at about 37 times next year's earnings. A slowdown in air travel or a Boeing production problem shows up in its deliveries, and it fell 52% in the 2020 crash.

fwd P/E 37.0 · FCF yield 2.4% · revenue growth 3y +16% · expected EPS growth +6% · net debt/EBITDA 0.8
3y vol 31% · beta 1.16 · 12-mo trend +33% · 2022 -33% · 2020 -51% · score 72

WELL · Welltower

5.0% of portfolio

Real Estate · $174B

The largest owner of senior housing in the United States, benefiting from an ageing population and occupancy still recovering from the pandemic, so rents and operating income are growing fast for a real estate company.

Risk. A REIT, so its forward P/E of about 82 overstates how expensive it is (depreciation depresses REIT earnings; funds from operations is the better measure), but it is not cheap on any measure, it carries real estate debt, and it fell 50% in the 2020 crash.

fwd P/E 82.0 · FCF yield 1.8% · revenue growth 3y +23% · expected EPS growth +32% · net debt/EBITDA n/a
3y vol 21% · beta 0.31 · 12-mo trend +41% · 2022 -31% · 2020 -50% · score 71

MRK · Merck

5.0% of portfolio

Health Care · $376B

ETN · Eaton

5.0% of portfolio

Industrials · $154B

Electrical equipment for data centres, grids and buildings, the picks and shovels of electrification, with orders and backlog growing on the AI power build-out.

Risk. An industrial cycle plus a premium multiple: if data-centre construction slows, both earnings and the multiple shrink. It fell 44% in the 2020 crash.

fwd P/E 25.0 · FCF yield 2.6% · revenue growth 3y +10% · expected EPS growth +62% · net debt/EBITDA 3.2
3y vol 35% · beta 1.50 · 12-mo trend +29% · 2022 -18% · 2020 -44% · score 69

PH · Parker-Hannifin

5.0% of portfolio

Industrials · $122B

Motion and control components in almost every industrial and aerospace machine, run with a discipline that has lifted margins for a decade, with aerospace now a large and growing share of the business.

Risk. Industrial demand follows the economy: it fell 54% in the 2020 crash, and the multiple has expanded along with the stock.

fwd P/E 27.5 · FCF yield 3.2% · revenue growth 3y +4% · expected EPS growth +23% · net debt/EBITDA 1.4
3y vol 28% · beta 1.23 · 12-mo trend +41% · 2022 -19% · 2020 -54% · score 69

RTX · RTX

5.0% of portfolio

Industrials · $272B

Pratt & Whitney engines, Collins Aerospace and Raytheon missiles: a mix of commercial aerospace recovery and defence budgets that keep rising.

Risk. The Pratt geared turbofan recall has cost billions and is not finished, and fixed-price defence contracts can produce write-downs. It fell 50% in the 2020 crash.

fwd P/E 26.0 · FCF yield 4.0% · revenue growth 3y +10% · expected EPS growth +37% · net debt/EBITDA 1.9
3y vol 24% · beta 0.44 · 12-mo trend +41% · 2022 -3% · 2020 -50% · score 66

SLB · Schlumberger

5.0% of portfolio

Energy · $85B

The world's largest oilfield services company, with the most international exposure and growing digital and low-carbon businesses. It earns from what producers spend rather than from the oil price directly.

Risk. Producers cut spending fast when oil falls, and the stock shows it: down 63% in the 2020 crash. It is on the aggressive list for trend and growth, not for safety.

fwd P/E 17.5 · FCF yield 5.3% · revenue growth 3y +8% · expected EPS growth +60% · net debt/EBITDA 1.5
3y vol 33% · beta 0.93 · 12-mo trend +43% · 2022 +34% · 2020 -63% · score 66

FCX · Freeport-McMoRan

5.0% of portfolio

Materials · $104B

One of the largest copper miners, with the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and large U.S. operations, exposed to copper demand from electrification and data centres.

Risk. A copper price bet with mining and country risk on top. Indonesian policy on exports and ownership has changed before, and it fell 56% in the 2020 crash.

fwd P/E 18.1 · FCF yield 1.7% · revenue growth 3y +4% · expected EPS growth +96% · net debt/EBITDA 0.7
3y vol 44% · beta 1.65 · 12-mo trend +48% · 2022 -30% · 2020 -55% · score 63

Method

How the three lists were built

Everything on this page is produced by written rules that anyone can re-run, because a stock list is the easiest place for a site like this to start typing numbers in. The universe was fixed before any metric was computed: 145 large U.S. companies covering all eleven sectors. All three rules use the same universe, the same screen and the same five scores; they differ only in what they reward and how they spread the money.

The screen. Five years of prices, a trailing profit, and a published forward earnings estimate. Outside Financials, Real Estate, Utilities, where the measures are structural or not meaningful: positive trailing free cash flow and net debt at or under 3.5 times EBITDA. 127 of 145 names passed. The aggressive rule adds a growth floor: revenue growing at least 10% a year over three years, or expected earnings growth of at least 15% next year; 27 more names fell out there.
Five scores, each a percentile rank across the whole universe, 0 to 100, higher is better. Quality: return on equity, free-cash-flow margin (ROE only for structural sectors). Value: forward earnings yield, free-cash-flow yield (earnings yield only for structural sectors). Momentum: 12-month price return, skipping the most recent month. Defence: 3-year downside deviation and 3-year beta, a window that opens after the 2020 and 2022 episodes end. Growth: 3-year revenue growth, 3-year earnings-per-share growth, and next year's expected earnings growth (trailing over forward P/E).
Three rules. Each weights the five scores into one composite, takes the best eligible name from every sector if it insists on coverage, then fills to 20 by composite under its sector cap, and spreads the money its own way.

The three rules side by side
Rule	Quality	Value	Momentum	Defence	Growth	Sector min · max	Money	Extra screen	Target
Conservative	30%	20%	10%	40%	0%	1 · 3	inverse volatility, cap 8%	none	none
Balanced	25%	25%	25%	25%	0%	1 · 3	inverse volatility, cap 8%	none	none
Aggressive	15%	0%	45%	0%	40%	0 · 6	equal, 5% each	growth floor	50% a year, reported against the record

What fell out at the screen: 16 names for net debt over 3.5x EBITDA; 5 names for negative free cash flow; 2 names for no trailing profit; 1 names for under five years of prices.

Not scored: MMC (the source returned an error, so it was neither ranked nor excluded on merit).

The universe, sorted by 12-month trend. Gold with a mark is picked: C conservative, B balanced, A aggressive. Struck through failed the screen; hover for why.

MU^B AMAT LRCX^A AMD^A KLAC^A CAT^A NUE PANW^A CSCO MPC^B LLY^A PSX GOOGL^A ADI MRK^BA TXN FCX^A AMGN^CBA JNJ^CBA SLB^A MS PH^A NEM^CBA WELL^A RTX^A GS C XOM^B AVGO^A EQIX ANET^A REGN GE^A UNP^CB ~~CVS~~ AAPL UNH DE ETN^A LMT^CB NVDA KO^CB ELV CB^CB ~~WMB~~ BAC PLD SPG^CB UPS VRTX COP ~~SBUX~~ CVX GD NEE TMO DLR ~~OKE~~ EMR JPM ~~KMI~~ PM ~~GILD~~ TT ~~AMZN~~ AEP TJX^CB ABBV^C D HON EOG^CB PSA CL^CB WMT SCHW WFC O ~~PFE~~ VZ V EXC^B ~~KDP~~ LIN AXP BRK-B ~~APD~~ ECL MDLZ SRE DUK BLK WM^C MO^CB SO^C BA DHR QCOM SHW COST CME ~~TDG~~ MSFT NOC CTAS MA AON^CB MCO IBM TSLA PEP BKNG MDT PG ADP ORLY DIS AMT^C ~~MCD~~ PGR^CB ICE SYK HD ~~CEG~~ LOW ISRG CMG ABT T^CB SPGI CMCSA META BX CCI CRM ADBE^C KKR VST ~~TMUS~~ ACN NOW ~~ORCL~~ NFLX NKE INTU BSX

What this is not. It is not advice and it knows nothing about you. It is three rules applied to public data on 2026-09-04, shown with their working, so you can argue with a rule rather than with a name.

The 50% target. The aggressive rule was set a goal of 50% a year. No rule can promise a return, and this page does not. It rewards what has compounded fastest (momentum and growth), then reports how often that mix actually delivered a 50% year: 21% of rolling 12-month windows and 1 of 9 full calendar years over the last decade, with the names chosen today. Treat the target as a yardstick, not an expectation.

Survivorship. The universe is today's large companies, which means companies that did well enough to still be large. The rules have not been run point-in-time, so the trailing numbers describe these names' past, not the rules'.

Hindsight in the crash test. The 2020 and 2022 figures hold today's names at today's weights through episodes that ended before the names were chosen. No rule uses those episodes (the defence score starts after 2022), so they are a fair test of each mix, but they say how a mix behaved, not how it would have been picked at the time.

Why no return forecast. Every rule that weights momentum favours names that have already gone up, so trailing returns look good by construction. That is why what you pay for earnings is shown as reward, and trailing returns are labelled as hindsight wherever they appear.

Data. Yahoo Finance chart endpoint, daily closes and cash dividends, ten years. Yahoo Finance fundamentals timeseries, trailing twelve months and four annual years. Estimates change and the source occasionally revises history; the page carries the date it was built.

Common questions

Stock portfolio FAQ

Which of the three portfolios should I choose?

That is your call, not this page's. The three are the same rule family with different priorities. Conservative pays most for calm: beta 0.23, -7% in the 2022 bear market. Balanced treats quality, price, trend and calm alike: beta 0.28, +1% in 2022. Aggressive chases growth and trend and accepts the swings: beta 1.17, -18% in 2022, -36% in the 2020 crash. None of them knows your finances, taxes or time horizon, and none is advice.

Can the aggressive portfolio really make 50% a year?

No rule can promise that, and this page does not. The aggressive rule was given a 50% a year target and built to reward what has compounded fastest, momentum and growth. With the names chosen today, which flatters it, that mix cleared +50% in 21% of rolling 12-month windows over the last ten years and in 1 of 9 full calendar years. Its typical 12-month result was +27%, its worst -22%. Over the last three years it compounded at +45% a year. The index fund cleared +50% in 1% of windows.

What happens to these portfolios if the market crashes?

Based on how each moves with the index, a 20% fall in the S&P 500 would take about 5% off the conservative mix, 6% off the balanced mix and 23% off the aggressive mix. In the real 2020 crash all three fell about as much as the index, -36% to -33%, because a liquidity crash sells everything. In the 2022 bear market they diverged: -7%, +1% and -18% against -24% for the index. Past results for today's names, not a promise.

Why are the biggest tech stocks missing from the conservative and balanced lists?

Those two rules cap every sector at three names, insist on one name from every sector, and pay for calm and for a reasonable price against next year's earnings, so the largest and most expensive companies fall out even when their businesses are excellent. The aggressive rule drops the sector minimum, lifts the cap to six and rewards growth and trend instead, which is why it holds 6 technology names and trades at 24.2 times forward earnings against 15.4 for the balanced mix.

How does this relate to the crash score?

The front page scores crash risk for the market as a whole; today it reads 47 out of 100, guarded. This page answers the next question: if you own stocks anyway, which ones held up when the market fell, which ones grew fastest, and what each costs. It is refreshed with the same data runs, and the notes on each company are dated.